Excuse my absence – GMAT and Me now!!

To get away from my own guilt i logged in today to keep this blog updated. I have been out of this blog for a while and i feel the Excuse i have is pretty solid.

Yes, I am working on my GMAT for now and i can say for sure that preparing for GMAT is no easier than i thought before i started. In the initial stage everything looked plausible and even looked quite simple. When i started working on it closely and when i gave my first mock test, the reality struck me and my egoistic Quant brain faced a devastating blow in the verbal section. Hard to digest and accept the first defeat, my preparations have become intense.

I hardly think outside of work and GMAT, but i will post my experiences shortly.

hope to be back soon!


EUR-USD— did it hit the bottom?

I missed my last update and here i am still following the EUR-USD and the AUD-USD.
The current Euro Zone debt issues have been a know issue since the time Greece got the bail out fund and even a default was in the picture. The talk of Italy and Spain defaults was also lingering for a while but the focus was more on the US debt and political issues/credit rating.
For the last 2 weeks the Euro Zone became the focal point and now you can see how the Dollar is riding against all the currencies. The concern of Euro Zone crisis spreading to US and the rest of the world exists and the break of a new recession is expected by most economists.
This makes me believe that there is a strong Dollar momentum and will continue till the 4Q 2011. If you look at my previous post of “Euro to fall off the cliff” has proved right and now the question is more about how much more Euro can go down. I looked at the monthly chart and that could give you some insight

Any correction would be for a short period and i would go short on Euro as i see the base to be 1.25 for this christmas.


EUR-USD off the cliff – finally!

I guess the much awaited break out happened in most pairs over the last 2 days. The technicals proved right again and EUR-USD showed a clear pattern by falling of the cliff after playing the range for months.


EUR-USD testing the lower top again

I think the EUR-USD is testing the lower top one more time. It is quite interesting to see how the EURO defies the fundamentals of Euro ZONE by trading better against the peer across the Atlantic. I guess the Euro wants to take a dip but would like to pull more bulls in to the game before it falls of the cliff. I see a 1.5 before it goes down. Look at the daily chart of EUR-USD and the recent congestion level. It might break this congestion and hit the previous high of 1.5 before some correction.

My positions are entry @ 1.458 to make sure it crosses the congestion zone.


Dow – Which way its looking?

Hope every one made some pips from the last time i was here. The last 2-3 weeks have been really tough on me in terms of the work and other professional commitments, but i was still watching the market moves. The last week moves made me to get back in to the market to see if there is a new trend being formed and i suspect the markets taking a turn.
As a FX trader, i am very keen to see how the equity and the treasury markets are reacting from last weeks. To be more precise, i am interested in Dow/S&P in terms of index and the short-term bond yield rate movements. If you have watched the Dow’s move over the last week its mind boggling to see such a huge volatility. Four days of 400 points move in a row is not usual in Dow’s history and it looks like a warning sign according to me. The other economic indicators coming from US and the EURO zone seems to be convincing of a new trend getting established.

As a strong believer of Elliot-wave patterns, i can take the above factors and account for the pending a-b-c wave in the DOW. (Look below at the DOW all time chart that i took from Google finance)

You can see that the “C” wave is pending and this correction can be steep and intense. But, we can not be so sure with so much at stake in terms of economy and the FED can intervene to artificially hold the market up with a QE3 till they see a modest growth.

I think i am gonna watch the market this week very closely and this would be a very crucial time to decide on going long or short with the Dollar pairs.

Watch closely and don’t play big for this week. expect some huge volatility!!


well, EUR/USD at crossroads. Quite tough to make a call.

From the 1.5 peak the EUR/USD is forming the lower tops consistently. Is this gonna be one more time or is the EU agreement has the oil to drive this up further.
Quite a tough call to make.In my opinion, i will try to fade the move as long the day closes below 1.456.Source-Daily FX

I will let you know tomorrow on my positions.


Follow Italy and ride the Dollar Bull

For all those who waited for the risk aversion to kick in and ride the dollar bull wave, here is the time folks. The bond yield rated for Italy has surged to 5.5% and 7% is a panic threshold. Though it usually takes a month to reach to that level, this is the time to ride dollar provided the US earnings don’t turn a ugly face to us.

Many would feel that if Greece didn’t have that of a impact how is Italy going to be of any difference but the case in hand is very different. Here, we are talking about the third biggest debt holder next only to US and Japan. So any default or rating change would have great impact on European Union. This might be the turn of the tide for the dollar which had a bad run from May 2011. The Other currencies to be noted are AUD/USD and NZD/USD.

Expect EUR/USD to hit 1.38-1.37 range before it consolidates.
Expect AUD/USD to hit 1.04 once it hits the 1.0617

Charts to follow.

Good luck!!


Biggest Margin call on Kiwi

Yesterday was one of my horrible trading days of this year. I haven’t even recovered from this fully yet but definitely felt to share my stupidity which would be a great learning by itself. Here goes my positions and the stupid mistakes.

With so much going on in Greece and Euro union, i should have been apprehensive to be bullish on dollar but still i did as the S&P was at the bottom of the ascending channel from last week and the RSI convergence for Euro was looking negative. All certain said, i tried to take my risk on the highly bought antipodean currency KIWI by shorting it @ .8020. I was looking for a descending channel from the all time high of .829 and the recent May high of .8170. With less hesitation i moved in big with 3 lots in to it.(here goes the first mistake of going big with out testing waters). This was around a hour before the European session opened and was around 12 in NY and went to bed(the second mistake, forgot to put the STOP).

All i could see this morning was my account got cleared out with the Margin call and wiped out all the earnings i made for the year. This was such a disaster and i couldn’t believe that i did this last night but all i could do was to stare at the charts and pity myself. A long way to go to even get back what i lost guys(really scary losses and don’t want to put the numbers here to add to my embarrassments)

Don’t forget to

add Stops
don’t get in big unless you are sure

i think i should listen to SK(sander kleinenberg) or Tiesto to pump me up and make me feel better!!!

Good luck till i come back with some good trades!!


EUR/USD and EUR/CHF to watch

Euro peaked on May 4 @ 1.494 and slipped so quickly to 1.397 which is very close to 1000 pips in less than a month on May 23. Again it bounced back to 1.47 in less than 2 weeks but with the Greek troubles mounting there was no reason why we saw the Euro plummet back to 1.40.

You can notice that Euro is trading in the range of 1.4 – 1.49 in the last 2 months. Historically, any peak is followed by a side-ways pattern and one more top before it falls of the cliff.

Now that the Euro is @ 1.44, we can expect it to atleast reach the 61.8% Fib retractment to 1.47 or th 100% to 1.49 to hit the top again. Greek concerns exist but Euro long seems to be more technical and fundamental.

Franc is bearish with USD and Euro on the Long with dollar gives a great combination of EUR/CHF for a long position.

Happy trading guys!!!


Finally moved to my personal site

After a frustrating 2 months, i finally moved my old blogs to my new domain. Going forward, i hope to be more regular on my blog.

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